25635 Kargat St · Lake Hughes, CA 93536

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 684 Days on market

Built 2003 3.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Horse Property!! This beautiful ranch style home with mountain views!! Property has horse arena, cover stalls, master bedroom with remodel master bathroom, built in 2003. Must see!!

Key facts

• Cover stalls
• Horse arena
• Ranch style home

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• HORSE ARENA
• COVER STALLS
• REMODEL MASTER BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Subject to special assessments
• HOA & community: Community includes horse trails

Exterior

• Parking: One garage space; One total parking space
• Utilities: Propane; Septic (type unknown); Other water source
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Entry level is 1; No ADU
• Construction: Certified 433a foundation
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; No pool; Has a view; Lot roughly 2–5 units per acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating area
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: One-level home with front-door entry; All bedrooms on the main floor; Double sinks in bathroom(s); Bathtub; Has fireplace (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups for gas and electric dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-90/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Lake Hughes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,119 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1129 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 684 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,913 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 684 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,688
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50216 255th W	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-5%)	0mo	$185,000	$144	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-65,891
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-91,602
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93536

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1129
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,462/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,979

Max offer price $348,672

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 684 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 683 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 682 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 681 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 679 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 678 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 675 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 674 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 673 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 670 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 669 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 668 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 667 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 666 DOM
15. 2025-01-09
    status Active
16. 2025-01-09
    price $350,000
17. 2024-11-07
    status Pending Sale
18. 2024-07-09
    price $364,950
19. 2024-05-31
    listed $375,000 Active
20. 2024-05-19
    historical
21. 2024-05-05
    listed $449,000 Active
22. 2022-09-06
    historical
23. 2022-06-23
    listed $409,000 Active
24. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $325,000 Closed Sale
25. 2021-10-20
    status Pending Sale
26. 2021-10-16
    status Active
27. 2021-09-16
    status Pending Sale
28. 2021-08-06
    listed $345,000 Active
29. 2002-08-21
    soldstatus $25,500
30. 1989-05-26
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,462 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,462 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,462
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,850
• − Management: −$2,850
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$6,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,457
• After-tax cash flow: $1,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Hughes

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1119
• US rank: #25621

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 73,412
• Household income: $106,903
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1998.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 19% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.64%
• Current HPI: 357.0605
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1066.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-09 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $364,950 CRMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listed $375,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-05-05 Listed $449,000 CRMLS
• 2022-09-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-06-23 Listed $409,000 CRMLS
• 2021-11-02 Sold (MLS) $325,000 CRMLS
• 2021-10-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-10-16 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2021-09-16 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-08-06 Listed $345,000 CRMLS
• 2002-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records
• 1989-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,462 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.