2444 N Stokes School Rd

Danbury, NC 27016

$209,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-212/mo
• Annual: $-2,544/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (34.3% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#192 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Stokes County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #78 of 178 in NC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 230 units permitted in Stokes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stokes County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $210k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.7% in Danbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?