2444 N Stokes School Rd · Danbury, NC 27016

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1955 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3BR/2BA home in Danbury on 1.20 acres! Enjoy a large covered front porch, 2-car attached garage, and great living spaces including a living room plus a cozy den with a beautiful stone fireplace. The kitchen sits just off the dining room, with easy access to the back wooden deck. All bedrooms are upstairs. Great opportunity for space and comfort! Offer Instructions are in the Agent Only Section.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Stone fireplace
• Back wooden deck

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• STONE FIREPLACE
• BACK WOODEN DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on a publicly maintained road; Lot size approximately 1.2 acres (confirm with survey)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank; Electric water heater; Electric service
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; Two levels; Built in 1955; One fireplace located in the den
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Construction details: see remarks; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: See remarks for exterior details; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: See remarks for additional interior details; Carpet and laminate flooring in areas; Vinyl flooring in areas
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.7% in Danbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#192 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Stokes County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #78 of 178 in NC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 230 units permitted in Stokes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Stokes County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $210k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,840 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $75,124
• Equity at exit: $161,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $227,956
• Equity at exit: $323,539

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27016

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,353/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,647

Max offer price $172,451

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $209,900
3. 2026-02-24
   price $215,000
4. 2026-01-09
   listed $229,900 Active
5. 2006-08-10
   soldstatus $95,000
6. 2000-03-01
   soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 27.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,353
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$6,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stokes County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704380
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,284
• Composite: 39.58/100
• National rank: #3928
• State rank: #78 of 178 in NC

Livability — Danbury

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #9582

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,858

Population outlook (Stokes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,106 people
• By 2030: 42,264 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 37,833 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 32,818 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 23,281 · -47.2%
• By 2100: 15,676 · -64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stokes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.6) · D 19.8% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -59.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.6 2020: R+57.8 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.17%
• Current HPI: 244.3559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+399.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $209,900 Triad MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $215,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $229,900 Triad MLS
• 2006-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,353 · +26.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.