13421 Plumpton Rd

Horizon City, TX 79928

$234,890D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,365/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$807
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-170/mo
• Annual: $-2,036/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $65,769

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (12.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $235k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $205k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Sue A Shook School (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,058 students, 68% FRL); Eastlake H S (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,851 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2088 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.