13421 Plumpton Rd · Horizon City, TX 79928

$234,890

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2018 5,509 sqft lot ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom residence offers the quality construction and highly sought-after floor plan that buyers have come to appreciate. Featuring an open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, the home provides a bright and inviting atmosphere with excellent flow for everyday living and entertaining. The thoughtfully designed split-bedroom floor plan includes a private primary suite complete with a generously sized bathroom, separate soaking tub, and walk-in shower. With solid construction, great bones, and endless potential, this property presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to personalize a home and add their own style and updates over time. Conveniently desig

Key facts

• 5,509 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Flat and tile roof
• Exterior features: Back yard access

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances and other kitchen details available — see remarks
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with zoning (exact room levels not specified)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating details: see remarks; Central cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Zoned master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry and utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (12.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Sue A Shook School (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,058 students, 68% FRL); Eastlake H S (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,851 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2088 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,922 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-48,743
• Equity at exit: $35,023

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-55,858
• Equity at exit: $20,309

Cash invested: $65,769 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2088
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,365 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$709 /mo · $8,505/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $204,922

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,722
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
844 Chillington Rd Horizon City, TX	4.0	3.0	1954	$2,850	$1.46	14d	1	0.20mi
13401 Carterton Ave Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.5	1987	$2,450	$1.23	43d	1	0.27mi
945 Penrith St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1819	$1,950	$1.07	14d	1	0.28mi
945 Penrith St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$1,950	$1.01	43d	1	0.28mi
13389 Carterton Ave Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.5	1970	$2,645	$1.34	2d	1	0.28mi
956 Clapham St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	2288	$2,050	$0.90	14d	1	0.28mi
800 Caterick St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1876	$2,085	$1.11	10d	1	0.31mi
13470 Everingham St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	23d	1	0.35mi
13482 Bradford St Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,530	$1.19	10d	1	0.40mi
13482 Bradford St Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,530	$1.19	3d	1	0.40mi
781 Croxdale St Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1433	$1,800	$1.26	43d	1	0.42mi
13172 Willitoft Rd El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,450	$1.69	43d	1	0.48mi
13539 Doncaster St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,850	$1.21	43d	1	0.51mi
13257 Coldham St Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.5	2090	$2,300	$1.10	3d	1	0.53mi
13483 Halifax St Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.5	2061	$2,250	$1.09	2d	1	0.56mi
13677 Holbeck St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1869	$2,060	$1.10	43d	1	0.64mi
13709 Paseo Sereno Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$1,800	$1.02	23d	1	0.70mi
13113 Wellington Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,700	$1.83	14d	1	0.74mi
454 Claiborne St Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	2018	$1,775	$0.88	43d	1	0.80mi
452 Emerald Pass Ave Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$1,800	$0.84	43d	1	0.87mi
13637 Chepstow Ct El Paso, TX	5.0	4.0	2627	$3,200	$1.22	3d	1	1.01mi
12964 Runway Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	3.0	1410	$1,695	$1.20	44d	1	1.02mi
12956 Runway Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1446	$1,795	$1.24	43d	1	1.04mi
12805 Kingsbury Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,250	$1.28	3d	1	1.04mi
1130 Gaitan St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	23d	1	1.09mi
369 Emerald Acres Horizon City, TX	4.0	3.0	2471	$2,350	$0.95	3d	1	1.09mi
13146 Cleethorpes St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	2085	$2,075	$1.00	43d	1	1.10mi
392 Frodsham St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1801	$2,075	$1.15	43d	1	1.11mi
393 Frodsham St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,000	$1.12	11d	1	1.13mi
12716 Middlesbrough Ave Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.5	1825	$2,595	$1.42	11d	1	1.15mi
544 Cedarwood Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,795	$1.18	43d	1	1.17mi
908 Felton Pl El Paso, TX	4.0	3.5	2132	$2,250	$1.06	43d	1	1.21mi
19004 Bremerton Dr Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.5	2442	$2,300	$0.94	3d	1	1.22mi
19004 Bremerton Dr Horizon City, TX	4.0	3.0	2442	$2,300	$0.94	11d	1	1.22mi
13804 Summer Camp Ct El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	2665	$3,300	$1.24	43d	1	1.24mi
13122 Salterton Ave Unit NA El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	43d	1	1.24mi
1028 Flyer Pl El Paso, TX	5.0	3.0	2811	$2,750	$0.98	11d	1	1.26mi
828 Acton St Unit 1 Horizon City, TX	4.0	3.0	2120	$3,861	$1.82	43d	1	1.27mi
1149 Stoke St El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	2146	$2,500	$1.16	43d	1	1.27mi
13131 Oakhampton Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $234,890 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,505 · $709/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,505 · $709/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,157
• − Property taxes: −$8,505
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$5,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horizon City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #11815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 86,599
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $234,890 GEPARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $249,000 GEPARMLS
• 2024-11-11 Rental Removed $2,350 GEPARMLS
• 2024-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-12 Listed for Rent $2,350 GEPARMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $312,500 GEPARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $322,500 GEPARMLS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $325,000 GEPARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listed $330,000 GEPARMLS
• 2020-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-12 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2020-06-16 Listed $275,000 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+42.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,505 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.