Cabin 99 Northwoods

Cougar, WA 98616

$165,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,476/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$95
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-835/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-835/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (10.6% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stevenson-Carson School District (rural): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #209 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carson Elementary (193 students, 60% FRL); Wind River Middle School (208 students, 60% FRL); Stevenson High School (265 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Skamania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Cougar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.