Cabin 99 Northwoods · Cougar, WA 98616

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $204k · 19% under $95/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

ONE-LEVEL CABIN IN NORTHWOODS! Located on the corner of one of the largest lots in the Northwoods community along Swift Reservoir this 1,000 sqft cabin is surrounded by the beautiful Gifford Pinchot National Forest and is perfect for year round adventure or weekend getaways. Features include 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, an open great room concept, tongue and groove vaulted ceiling, wood-burning stove, propane and electric lighting, freestanding gas range, refrigerator, dishwasher, kitchen island, metal roof, large wood deck, propane generator with inverter battery system, 500-gallon owned propane tank, tankless water heater, tool storage and more. Whether you enjoy hiking, boating, fishing, hunt

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Large wood deck
• Propane generator

Tags

• ONE LEVEL CABIN
• CORNER LOT
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE WOOD DECK
• PROPANE GENERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Northwoods community (Cabin #99 Northwoods, Cougar, WA)
• Financial info: Property is on leased land with annual lot rent of $2,500 (land lease exists; lease expires June 1, 2069)
• HOA & community: Member of Northwoods HOA; HOA provides commons, grounds maintenance, management, recreation facilities, road maintenance, and water; Association fee: $1,135 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Propane and wood burning fuel options; Water from community/shared well; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (resale); Main level living; View of trees/woods; Located on a corner lot; Leased land
• Construction: Built in 1975; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Wood siding; Deck; Free‑standing hot tub; Tool shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing range; Free‑standing refrigerator; Gas appliances; Kitchen island; Granite countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ceiling fan and sliding doors; Second bedroom on main level with sliding doors and closet; Third bedroom on main level with closet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on upper/main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wall heater; Wood stove; No central air conditioning; Hot water: Propane tankless
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite surfaces; Vinyl window frames; Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-835/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Cougar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stevenson-Carson School District (rural): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #209 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carson Elementary (193 students, 60% FRL); Wind River Middle School (208 students, 60% FRL); Stevenson High School (265 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Skamania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $147,556 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
Cabin 88 Northwoods	0.10mi	3/1.0	992 (-1%)	10mo	$135,000	$136	85
Cabin 131 Northwoods	0.14mi	3/1.0	976 (-2%)	14mo	$144,500	$148	78
Cabin 157 Northwoods	0.14mi	3/1.0	856 (-14%)	2mo	$175,000	$204	68
199 Northwoods Cabin	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	7mo	$295,000	$341	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,402
• Equity at exit: $79,380

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $73,078
• Equity at exit: $126,530

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98616

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,564

Max offer price $154,931

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-13	+0% $-70	+5% $-127	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-128	+0% $-70	+5% $-11	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-28	base $-70	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectric

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $165,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$866
• After-tax cash flow: $31/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stevenson-Carson School District
• NCES district ID: 5308520
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,512
• Composite: 37.73/100
• National rank: #8766
• State rank: #209 of 291 in WA

Livability — Cougar

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 81

Population outlook (Skamania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,886 people
• By 2030: 12,036 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 11,995 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 11,607 · -2.3%
• By 2075: 10,881 · -8.5%
• By 2100: 10,392 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skamania

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.0% · R 54.2% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+9.5 2016: R+12.6 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Current HPI: 235.7646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $165,000 RMLS