1354 Elliot Rd #3

Paradise, CA 95969

$119,990B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,392/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $392/mo
• Annual: $4,699/yr
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.99%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $33,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-, housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $120k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.6% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.