1354 Elliot Rd #3 · Paradise, CA 95969

$119,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 2021 $109/sqft · 42% below area Est $208k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tranquility awaits in the beautiful town of Paradise, CA! This BRAND NEW 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort and peace of mind with our included black appliance package, cozy carpeted bedrooms, and stylish laminate flooring throughout the kitchen, dining area, and bathrooms. With a brand new home comes freedom from costly repairs for years to come including a new roof, new furnace, new dishwasher, and more! Located in the newly completed Paradise Mobile Estates, this is the ONLY fully completed manufactured home community in all of Paradise offering HOME OWNERSHIP not renting. Enjoy the pride of ownership in a welcoming community designed for comfortable living. Don't miss you

Key facts

• New furnace
• New dishwasher
• New roof

Tags

• BLACK APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• COZY CARPETED BEDROOMS
• STYLISH LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 1354 Elliot Rd #3, Paradise, CA 95969 (home site #3 off the third entrance from Clark)
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but land lease is No)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V outlet in laundry; Septic system; Water from district
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double wide; Clayton manufactured home; Built in 2021
• Construction: Composition roof; Vinyl skirting
• Exterior features: Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Skylight(s)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Cooling: other
• Interior features: Skylight(s) in the kitchen; Living room with additional/other features; Dining area located in the kitchen; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.6% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-, housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $120k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,390 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.99%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,484
• List price: $119,990
• Delta: -42.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1354 Elliott Rd #14	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,136 (+3%)	10mo	$119,000	$105	87
1354 Elliott Rd #27	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,065 (-4%)	10mo	$105,000	$99	86
1354 Elliot Rd #25	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-6%)	6mo	$119,000	$114	86
1354 Elliot Rd #8	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+1%)	22mo	$125,000	$112	79
1432 Gordon	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	2mo	$220,000	$229	61
1562 Hemlock	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,041 (-6%)	2mo	$255,000	$245	52
5576 Heavenly Pl	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (+8%)	9mo	$265,000	$223	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,320
• Equity at exit: $17,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $62,337
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95969

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,392 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $344/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $896

Max offer price $119,990

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,998
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1561 Kay Ct Paradise, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$898	$1.01	13d	1	0.60mi
1561 Kay Ct Unit D Paradise, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$898	$1.01	21d	1	0.60mi
5589 Linrich Ln Paradise, CA	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,995	$1.56	44d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,990 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,990 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,990 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,990 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,990 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,990 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,990 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,990 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,990 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,990 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,990 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,990 Active 15 DOM
18. 2025-10-27
    historical
19. 2025-06-05
    status Active
20. 2025-05-31
    status Pending Sale
21. 2025-05-15
    listed $119,990 Active
22. 2024-07-24
    historical
23. 2024-06-30
    price $107,000
24. 2024-06-20
    price $110,000
25. 2024-06-15
    listed $112,000 Active
26. 2022-12-01
    historical
27. 2022-09-26
    price $120,000
28. 2022-09-08
    listed $125,000 Active
29. 2010-09-27
    soldstatus $40,000
30. 2010-09-11
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $344 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 165.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,721
• − Property taxes: −$344
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,336
• − Management: −$1,336
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$689
• After-tax cash flow: $4,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Paradise

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #18039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 8,339
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,339
• Household income: $69,067
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.40%
• Current HPI: 102.8367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+140.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-05 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-05-31 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $119,990 CRMLS
• 2024-07-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-06-30 Price Changed $107,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-15 Listed $112,000 CRMLS
• 2022-12-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-09-26 Price Changed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2022-09-08 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2010-09-27 Sold (MLS) $40,000 CRMLS
• 2010-09-11 Listed $49,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2018): $344 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.