137 70th St

Guttenberg, NJ 07093

$1,695,000C

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $19,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,889
• Tax + insurance: −$2,357
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,021
• Net cashflow: $3,881/mo
• Annual: $46,569/yr
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.81%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $474,600

Investor read

• This is a 8 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $1.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive. Per door: $485/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.70M).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.54M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.54M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#51 in NJ, #1,253 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Guttenberg School District (suburban): math 10% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #435 of 472 in NJ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anna L. Klein (math 10% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 949 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.3% in Guttenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $19,148/mo this rent would consume 314% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 5546% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.