2308 Long Rdg

Arlington, TX 76014

$205,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · Built 1973 · Townhouse · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,864/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$464
• HOA: −$160
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-226/mo
• Annual: $-2,716/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Arlington ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #629 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?