431 Columbus Ave

New Haven, CT 06519

$431,500D+

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Built 1988 · MultiFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,173/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,263
• Tax + insurance: −$684
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$876
• Net cashflow: $350/mo
• Annual: $4,200/yr
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $120,820

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $432k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $175/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (3.3% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $417k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 46 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $121k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,173/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1321% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.