431 Columbus Ave · New Haven, CT 06519

$431,500

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $340k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

UPDATE as of June 13,2025. To All Buyers, please only respond by email of your SERIOUS about buying ONLY! The house has been remolded and move in ready. MUST SELL BY SEPT. 1st. ASKING PRICE IS FIRM!!

Key facts

• Built 1988
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1988; One building with 1,976 finished living area
• Construction: Year built: 1988
• Exterior features: Located in The Hill subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $432k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $175/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $417k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 46 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,173/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1321% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $121k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $417,300 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,872
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Frank St	0.10mi	6/3.0	2,120 (+7%)	4mo	$430,000	$203	80
171 Frank St	0.28mi	5/3.0 (-1)	1,975 (-0%)	10mo	$340,000	$172	74
56 Ann St	0.18mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,067 (+5%)	6mo	$407,000	$197	74
95 Frank St	0.17mi	6/3.0	2,243 (+14%)	2mo	$385,000	$172	68
45 Kossuth St	0.22mi	6/3.0	2,153 (+9%)	11mo	$425,000	$197	66
152 Lamberton St	0.54mi	6/3.0	2,080 (+5%)	8mo	$340,000	$163	60
61 Stevens St	0.42mi	6/2.0	2,046 (+4%)	14mo	$300,000	$147	59
133 Plymouth St	0.64mi	6/3.0	2,100 (+6%)	4mo	$275,000	$131	57
533 Howard Ave	0.40mi	6/2.0	1,772 (-10%)	6mo	$235,000	$133	56
210 Rosette St	0.39mi	6/3.0	2,205 (+12%)	12mo	$430,000	$195	52
33 Stevens St	0.34mi	7/2.0 (+1)	2,205 (+12%)	14mo	$320,000	$145	44
97 Scranton St	0.68mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,169 (+10%)	9mo	$215,000	$99	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.81% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $252,978
• Equity at exit: $382,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $728,653
• Equity at exit: $819,128

Cash invested: $120,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06519

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 17.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,263
• Tax from tax record: −$504 /mo · $6,049/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$876
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,730

Max offer price $431,500

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $594	-5% $472	+0% $350	+5% $228	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $185	+0% $350	+5% $515	+10% $680
Rate	-1.0pp $567	-0.5pp $460	base $350	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $124

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	—	$4,172
Total (2 units)			$4,173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,875
• Closing costs: $12,945
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
84 Morris St Unit 2nd Fl New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1410	$1,825	$1.29	3d	1	0.47mi
34 Cassius St Unit 36 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1872	$2,300	$1.23	44d	1	0.59mi
5 Gilbert Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	24d	1	0.71mi
67 Edgewood Ave New Haven, CT	7.0	2.5	2000	$6,100	$3.05	44d	1	0.94mi
229 Dwight St New Haven, CT	6.0	2.0	2400	$4,995	$2.08	3d	1	0.97mi
37 Center St Unit 2 West Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	2500	$3,300	$1.32	3d	1	1.40mi
54 Trumbull St Unit 54-1 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.5	2250	$6,695	$2.98	15d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $431,500 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $431,500 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $431,500 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $431,500 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $431,500 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $431,500 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $431,500 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $431,500 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $431,500 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $431,500 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $431,500 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $431,500 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $431,500 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $431,500 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $431,500 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $431,500 Active 200-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,049 · $504/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,642 · $637/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,593/yr (+$133/mo · 26.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,171
• − Property taxes: −$6,049
• − Insurance: −$2,158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,006
• − Management: −$4,006
• − Depreciation: −$12,553
• Taxable loss: −$2,866
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$688
• After-tax cash flow: $4,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 15,605
• Household income: $49,619
• Rent vs Own: 73.7% rent · 26.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1321.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 26% White 15% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.81%
• Current HPI: 377.4885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $431,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,049 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.