2 San Juan Ct

St. Helena, CA 94574

$425,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,664/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$775
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,189
• Net cashflow: $1,471/mo
• Annual: $17,653/yr
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.51%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $425k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $419k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Saint Helena Unified (town): math 50% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #231 of 1,400 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 1.7% in St. Helena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,664/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($139k/yr) (locally 383% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.