2 San Juan Ct · St. Helena, CA 94574

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $379k · 12% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

In the heart of wine country, a rare opportunity awaits in Napa Valley's premier 55+ community, Vineyard Valley. One of just a few three-bedroom, two-bath homes with a detached garage, this generously proportioned residence offers approximately 1,568 sq ft of living space plus a private side yard and backyard perfect for gardening or outdoor entertaining. Inside, you'll find a spacious kitchen and living room brightened by skylights, a large primary en suite with walk-in closet, laundry room, and two additional sizeable rooms. One of these versatile rooms, also with its own walk-in closet, features a sliding glass door leading to the backyard and can easily serve as a guest room, study, or

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Spacious kitchen
• Private side yard

Tags

• PRIVATE SIDE YARD
• BACKYARD FOR GARDENING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE PRIMARY EN SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Guest parking available; Interior access; 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Natural gas connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) in a park; Land lease community; Skirted with brick; Composition roof
• Construction: Manufacturer: FUQUA (09755 FUQUA HM INC)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Backyard; Front yard; Garden

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Gas-log fireplace with insert (1)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Bonus room; Laundry room; Storage; Utility room; Family room with cathedral/vaulted ceiling and skylights; Living room with cathedral/vaulted ceiling and skylights; Kitchen with breakfast area and skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $419k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 1.7% in St. Helena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Saint Helena Unified (town): math 50% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #231 of 1,400 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,664/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($139k/yr) (locally 383% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $418,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.51%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $379,456
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 San Juan Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	11mo	$275,000	$179	82
7 Del Campo Ct	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+7%)	2mo	$520,000	$310	80
56 Laguna Seca Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	3mo	$400,000	$275	80
24 San Lucas Ct	0.18mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,578 (+1%)	6mo	$420,000	$266	78
4 La Canada Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	5mo	$349,000	$242	74
14 San Lucas Ct	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	2mo	$370,000	$257	72
8 San Lucas Ct	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	5mo	$289,000	$201	70
2 San Ardo Ct	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$235,000	$163	70
5 La Cuesta Ct	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	10mo	$258,700	$180	69
16 Los Robles Ct	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	7mo	$381,000	$265	69
12 Del Rio Ct	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$185,000	$138	63
2 La Canada Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	8mo	$285,000	$212	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $24,955
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $142,893
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94574

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,375/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,189
• Net cashflow: $1,471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,802

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
829 Hunt Ave Unit C St Helena, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	13d	1	0.35mi
844 Signorelli Cir Saint Helena, CA	3.0	2.0	2020	$5,495	$2.72	21d	1	0.41mi
1082 Mariposa Ln Saint Helena, CA	3.0	2.0	1312	$4,350	$3.32	13d	1	0.43mi
1655 Scott St Saint Helena, CA	3.0	3.0	2074	$6,500	$3.13	21d	1	1.10mi
1811 Hillview Pl Saint Helena, CA	2.0	2.5	1583	$12,500	$7.90	21d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $425,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $425,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$6,375
• − Insurance: −$2,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,438
• − Management: −$5,438
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable income: $11,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,790
• After-tax cash flow: $14,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saint Helena Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637830
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,540
• Composite: 54.39/100
• National rank: #2913
• State rank: #231 of 1400 in CA

Livability — St. Helena

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Helena, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 7,457
• Household income: $139,474
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -711.97%
• Current HPI: 203.5761
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $425,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · +34.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.