125 Barren Riv #9

Erlanger, KY 41018

$140,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,011 sqft · Built 1994 · Condo · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,443/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$291
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-30/mo
• Annual: $-365/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.93%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-365/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (3.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#126 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Erlanger-Elsmere Independent (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #128 of 165 in KY (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Miles Elementary School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 230 students, 50% FRL); Tichenor Middle School (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #161 of 217 statewide, top 75%, 539 students, 54% FRL); Lloyd High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 697 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $140k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Erlanger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.