37 Lardner Ct #31

Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$350,000B+

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,432 sqft · Built 1944 · MultiFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$555
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,262
• Net cashflow: $2,358/mo
• Annual: $28,299/yr
• Cap rate: 14.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.88%
• DSCR: 2.28
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive. Per door: $590/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $350k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $345k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $350k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,011/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1427% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.