37 Lardner Ct #31 · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$350,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,432 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1944 7,353 sqft lot Est $501k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

31–37 Lardner Ct, Tonawanda, NY Excellent investment opportunity in the City of Tonawanda! This well-maintained 4-unit townhouse-style property offers 3,432 sq ft with a desirable side-by-side layout that tenants love. Each unit features its own private entrance and townhouse-style living, making it feel more like individual homes than traditional apartments. The property currently has one vacant unit, providing the perfect opportunity for an owner-occupant or the ability to increase rental income. The other three units are generating $3,050 per month, with units ranging from semi-updated to fully updated, offering modernized interiors that attract quality tenants. Major mechanical i

Key facts

• Strong rental demand
• Newer furnaces
• Modernized interiors

Tags

• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• TOWNHOUSE STYLE LIVING
• MODERNIZED INTERIORS
• NEWER FURNACES
• STRONG RENTAL DEMAND
• ADDITIONAL INCOME POTENTIAL

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $350,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$501,072) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive. Per door: $590/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $345k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,011/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1427% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $350k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $344,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.88%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $501,072
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Lardner Ct #31	0.00mi	8/4.0	3,432 (0%)	0mo	$330,000	$96	100
985 Sheridan Dr	0.53mi	7/4.0 (-1)	3,498 (+2%)	13mo	$510,000	$146	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $117,093
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $399,998
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 19.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,910/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,262
• Net cashflow: $2,358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,026

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,556	-5% $2,457	+0% $2,358	+5% $2,259	+10% $2,160
Rent	-10% $1,883	-5% $2,121	+0% $2,358	+5% $2,596	+10% $2,833
Rate	-1.0pp $2,535	-0.5pp $2,447	base $2,358	+0.5pp $2,268	+1.0pp $2,175

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$6,012
Total (4 units)			$6,011

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   listed $350,000 Active
3. 2017-10-25
   soldstatus $95,000
4. 2016-01-29
   soldstatus $67,500
5. 2013-07-08
   soldstatus $63,750
6. 2005-08-05
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,910 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,412 · $451/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,910
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,771
• − Management: −$5,771
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable income: $24,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,795
• After-tax cash flow: $22,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+536.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $350,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2013-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $63,750 Public Records
• 2005-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,910 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.