263 10TH St Unit 4D

Jersey City, NJ 07302

$499,263F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 724 sqft · Built — · Condo · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,376/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,618
• Tax + insurance: −$832
• HOA: −$670
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-1,453/mo
• Annual: $-17,437/yr
• Cap rate: 2.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.47%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $139,794

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $499k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (42.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $289k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in NJ, #2,955 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Jersey City Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 472 in NJ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rafael Cordero Y Molina (math 13% / reading 44%, grade F, #774 of 1,303 statewide, top 60%, 735 students, 39% FRL); Academy I (math 60% / reading 76%, grade A-, #14 of 431 statewide, top 3%, 403 students, 46% FRL); James J Ferris High School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #346 of 399 statewide, top 88%, 1,348 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 69% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jersey City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 687 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 2.1% in Jersey City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear and tear, could benefit from a fresh coat of paint
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Some wear and tear, could benefit from a fresh coat of paint