4187 E State Highway Cc

Fair Grove, MO 65648

$255,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,214 sqft · Built 1901 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-462/mo
• Annual: $-5,547/yr
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-462 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (43.9% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#205 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fair Grove R-X (rural): math 45% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #40 of 324 in MO (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fair Grove Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 521 students, 40% FRL); Fair Grove Middle (math 44% / reading 52%, grade C-, #84 of 391 statewide, top 22%, 364 students, 35% FRL); Fair Grove High (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 376 students, 33% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.2% in Fair Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.