4187 E State Highway Cc · Fair Grove, MO 65648

$255,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,214 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1901 7.08 ac lot $115/sqft · 21% below area Est $322k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

If you've been looking for that ''close to everything but feels like the country'' kind of place. .. this is it. Sitting just outside town on 7 acres +/- with quick access to the highway, this property gives you space to breathe, room to spread out, and views you'll actually enjoy coming home to. The setting is peaceful, with mature trees, wide open yard space, and a wet weather creek running through the property, adding to that natural, country feel. The home itself has character you don't find every day, featuring craftsman-style trim details, warm wood tones, and a large living area with a wood-burning fireplace that anchors the space. Natural light pours in through the main living room

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Wet weather creek
• 7 acres

Tags

• 7 ACRES
• MATURE TREES
• WET WEATHER CREEK
• CRAFTSMAN-STYLE TRIM
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 7.08 acres; Other outbuilding/structure on the property

Exterior

• Parking: 2‑car garage that faces the front; Gravel parking
• Security: Smoke detectors; Fire alarm
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; Propane service
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Covered front and side porch; Deck; Partial to full fencing including chain link and vinyl; Sloped lot; County road frontage; Asphalt road surface; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric oven; Free‑standing electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Propane heating; Forced air; Wood heating; Fireplace heating
• Interior features: Crown molding; Window coverings including blinds and drapes; Masonry wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Therapeutic whirlpool
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-462 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (43.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.2% in Fair Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#205 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fair Grove R-X (rural): math 45% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #40 of 324 in MO (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fair Grove Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 521 students, 40% FRL); Fair Grove Middle (math 44% / reading 52%, grade C-, #84 of 391 statewide, top 22%, 364 students, 35% FRL); Fair Grove High (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 376 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,000 (43.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,808
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -20.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $109,353
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $345,016
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65648

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $984/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,015

Max offer price $173,334

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-318	-5% $-390	+0% $-462	+5% $-534	+10% $-607
Rent	-10% $-575	-5% $-519	+0% $-462	+5% $-406	+10% $-349
Rate	-1.0pp $-334	-0.5pp $-397	base $-462	+0.5pp $-528	+1.0pp $-596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $264,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $264,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $264,900 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $275,000 Active 1506-char remark
18. 2018-07-09
    soldstatus
19. 2018-01-18
    listed $162,900
20. 2011-08-01
    soldstatus
21. 2003-08-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,474 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,489/yr (+$124/mo · 151.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$984
• − Insurance: −$2,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$10,345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,483
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fair Grove R-X
• NCES district ID: 2911700
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,472
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3220
• State rank: #40 of 324 in MO

Livability — Fair Grove

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #10427

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,298

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.73%
• Current HPI: 276.68
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+56.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $255,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $264,900 SOMO
• 2026-05-05 Listed $275,000 SOMO
• 2018-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-18 Listed $162,900 SOMO
• 2011-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $984 · +25.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.