84 Willow Dr

Marion, AR 72364

$150,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $64/mo
• Annual: $763/yr
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($763/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (18.5% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $122k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#147 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #185 of 238 in AR (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Herbert Carter Global Community Magnet School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #274 of 454 statewide, top 61%, 636 students, 58% FRL); Marion Junior High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #170 of 201 statewide, top 86%, 970 students, 75% FRL); Marion High School (math 10% / reading 27%, grade F, #251 of 292 statewide, top 86%, 850 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 69 units permitted in Crittenden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crittenden County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $150k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.