3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,728 sqft ·
Built 1999
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 120 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,562/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,175
Tax + insurance
−$443
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$328
Net cashflow
$-384/mo
Annual
$-4,602/yr
Cap rate
4.24%
Cash-on-cash
-7.34%
DSCR
0.67
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$62,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (30.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (30.3% below list).
It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $156k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
North Slope Borough School District (rural): math 7% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #16 of 21 in AK (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Fred Ipalook Elementary (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #153 of 156 statewide, top 100%, 539 students, 29% FRL); Eben Hopson Middle School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #33 of 36 statewide, top 94%, 247 students, 35% FRL); Barrow High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #58 of 61 statewide, top 98%, 276 students, 29% FRL).
Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in North Slope Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
North Slope County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S5DHD51H7JQRNB
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29