181 Aviston St

Lomax, IL 61454

$69,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 929 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $877/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $257/mo
• Annual: $3,090/yr
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.79%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($877 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,040 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Illini West H S District 307 (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #611 of 919 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henderson County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.