2451 Citrus Tree Rd

Four Corners, FL 34714

$190,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 481 sqft · Built 2020 · Condo · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$263
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-162/mo
• Annual: $-1,942/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $687 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-627 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $190k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?