2451 Citrus Tree Rd · Four Corners, FL 34714

$190,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 481 sqft · Condo public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2020 $263/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming one bedroom, one bath home located in a desirable gated community. Built in 2020 and offering 481 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this cozy residence is perfect for those seeking comfort, efficiency, and low maintenance living. Inside, you will find crown molding throughout and LVT flooring adding a touch of sophistication. The kitchen features 42-inch cabinets, beautiful backsplash, and granite countertops, providing both style and functionality. The home features a bright and inviting layout, with a Florida room in the back perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying the sunshine year round. Situated on a paved lot, the property is in a golf

Key facts

• Gated community
• Shed for storage
• Florida room

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FLORIDA ROOM
• PAVED LOT
• GOLF CART FRIENDLY
• SHED FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions reported
• Financial info: Total annual HOA fees $3,156; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $263; Association provides cable TV, pool, internet, grounds maintenance, private road maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities include pool, playground, fitness center, gated entry, community mailbox; golf carts allowed; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Association name: Leland Management

Exterior

• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; High‑speed internet available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Storage shed(s); Gazebo; Landscaped lot; Paved surfaces; Fruit trees; Mature landscaping; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Reverse osmosis water system; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds; Shutters; Tinted windows; Electric fireplace (Florida room listed separately)
• Laundry & utility: Washer (in unit); Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $687 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-627 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $190k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,930 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.33% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-23,338
• Equity at exit: $52,056

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-29,475
• Equity at exit: $60,139

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34714

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $851/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$263
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $161,412

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-108	+0% $-162	+5% $-216	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-224	+0% $-162	+5% $-99	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-114	base $-162	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2222 Hamlin Trl Clermont, FL	1.0	1.0	360	$1,800	$5.00	21d	1	0.34mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $263 · $3,156/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $190,000
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $195,000 Active
17. 2017-01-23
    soldstatus $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$726/yr (+$60/mo · 85.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$851
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − HOA: −$3,156
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,208
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,250
• After-tax cash flow: $-692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Four Corners, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,200
• Household income: $75,392
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 953.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 25% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 17% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Current HPI: 256.1331
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.46%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+296.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $851 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.