12406 Turtle Dove Pl

Waldorf, MD 20602

$296,000C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,658 sqft · Built 1991 · Townhouse · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,937/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax + insurance: −$480
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $213/mo
• Annual: $2,553/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $82,880

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $296k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (0.8% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $287k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eva Turner Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #766 of 860 statewide, top 93%, 463 students, 69% FRL); Benjamin Stoddert Middle School (math 7% / reading 26%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 925 students, 59% FRL); Thomas Stone High School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #168 of 222 statewide, top 76%, 1,177 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 28% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.8% in Waldorf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.