12406 Turtle Dove Pl · Waldorf, MD 20602

$296,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,658 sqft · Townhouse public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1991 1,500 sqft lot $179/sqft · 21% below area Est $374k · 21% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUGE PRICE REDUCTION AND $5000 IN CLOSING HELP!!!Beautiful townhome in Lakewood Estates ready for NEW owner! 4 bedrooms & 3.5 baths; spacious rec room w/ ceiling fans on entire lower level; Huge deck for outdoor entertaining; attic has flooring for addition storage; wood floors; and much more!! Shows very well! Can accomodate quick closing if desired.

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Fenced yard
• Private bath

Tags

• LAKEWOOD ESTATES COMMUNITY
• FENCED YARD
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• SEPARATE DINING SPACE
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Vacation rental permitted
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $75 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; No municipal trash service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Average condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Other cooling type; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Not furnished; Fully finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.8% in Waldorf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eva Turner Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #766 of 860 statewide, top 93%, 463 students, 69% FRL); Benjamin Stoddert Middle School (math 7% / reading 26%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 925 students, 59% FRL); Thomas Stone High School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #168 of 222 statewide, top 76%, 1,177 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 28% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,120 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,267
• List price: $296,000
• Delta: -20.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12473 Turtle Dove Pl	0.07mi	4/3.5	1,646 (-1%)	1mo	$379,000	$230	91
12419 Turtle Dove	0.05mi	4/3.5	1,638 (-1%)	22mo	$380,000	$232	73
12421 Turtle Dove Pl	0.05mi	4/4.5	1,750 (+6%)	14mo	$390,000	$223	69
3862 Gateview Pl	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,672 (+1%)	11mo	$355,900	$213	67
12303 Sweetbriar Pl	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,780 (+7%)	17mo	$354,900	$199	63
12643 Willow View Pl	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,790 (+8%)	20mo	$365,000	$204	60
3844 Gateview Pl	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,540 (-7%)	8mo	$329,900	$214	60
12349 Sweetbriar Pl	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,890 (+14%)	12mo	$369,000	$195	54
12635 Willow View Pl	0.09mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,840 (+11%)	21mo	$380,000	$207	51
12341 Sweetbriar Pl	0.18mi	4/3.5	1,860 (+12%)	21mo	$402,000	$216	50
12319 Sweetbriar Pl	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,890 (+14%)	19mo	$329,999	$175	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-34,335
• Equity at exit: $44,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-12,120
• Equity at exit: $25,593

Cash invested: $82,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20602

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,937 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,279/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,667

Max offer price $296,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,000
• Closing costs: $8,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12344 Sweetbriar Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	3.0	1776	$2,700	$1.52	43d	1	0.14mi
3870 Gateview Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,495	$1.49	20d	1	0.37mi
3454 Tamarack Ct Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.0	1368	$2,900	$2.12	43d	1	0.40mi
3975 Wintergreen Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,400	$1.94	24d	1	0.51mi
12298 Sandstone St Waldorf, MD	4.0	3.5	2197	$3,550	$1.62	22d	1	0.64mi
2324 Kent Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,900	$1.80	3d	1	0.76mi
2094 Chapelside Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,900	$2.03	43d	1	0.79mi
30 Keepsake Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,000	$1.49	24d	1	0.88mi
12111 Fielding Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1835	$3,270	$1.78	5d	7	0.90mi
3381 Ryon Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1232	$2,200	$1.79	11d	1	0.97mi
11960 Motley Pl Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.0	2172	$3,200	$1.47	43d	1	0.97mi
3281 Ryon Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1232	$2,299	$1.87	43d	1	1.11mi
2619 Rooks Head Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1188	$2,500	$2.10	43d	1	1.19mi
3379 Justice Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1085	$1,975	$1.82	5d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $296,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $296,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $296,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $296,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $296,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $296,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $311,600 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $311,600 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $311,600 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $311,600 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $311,600 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $311,600 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $311,600 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $328,000 Active 861-char remark
15. 2007-02-13
    soldstatus $293,000
16. 2007-01-31
    soldstatus $293,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    HUGE PRICE REDUCTION AND $5000 IN CLOSING HELP!!!Beautiful townhome in Lakewood Estates ready for NEW owner! 4 bedrooms & 3.5 baths; spacious rec room w/ ceiling fans on entire lower level; Huge deck for outdoor entertaining; attic has flooring for addition storage; wood floors; and much more!! Shows very well! Can accomodate quick closing if desired.

17. 2006-12-13
    historical 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    HUGE PRICE REDUCTION AND $5000 IN CLOSING HELP!!!Beautiful townhome in Lakewood Estates ready for NEW owner! 4 bedrooms & 3.5 baths; spacious rec room w/ ceiling fans on entire lower level; Huge deck for outdoor entertaining; attic has flooring for addition storage; wood floors; and much more!! Shows very well! Can accomodate quick closing if desired.

18. 2006-09-01
    listed $290,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    HUGE PRICE REDUCTION AND $5000 IN CLOSING HELP!!!Beautiful townhome in Lakewood Estates ready for NEW owner! 4 bedrooms & 3.5 baths; spacious rec room w/ ceiling fans on entire lower level; Huge deck for outdoor entertaining; attic has flooring for addition storage; wood floors; and much more!! Shows very well! Can accomodate quick closing if desired.

19. 2003-09-11
    soldstatus $184,950
20. 2003-08-26
    soldstatus $184,950
21. 2003-07-30
    historical
22. 2003-07-18
    listed $184,950
23. 1999-10-18
    soldstatus $130,000
24. 1999-10-16
    soldstatus $130,000
25. 1999-09-17
    historical
26. 1999-09-07
    listed $129,900
27. 1991-06-21
    soldstatus $132,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,279 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,279 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,581
• − Property taxes: −$4,279
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,819
• − Management: −$2,819
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,611
• Taxable loss: −$2,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$540
• After-tax cash flow: $3,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 103,527 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 28,331
• Household income: $107,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 867.0

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 19% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.39%
• Current HPI: 267.3445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+122.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $296,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $311,600 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $328,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $293,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-31 Sold (MLS) $293,000 MRIS
• 2006-12-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-09-01 Listed $290,000 MRIS
• 2003-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $184,950 Public Records
• 2003-08-26 Sold (MLS) $184,950 MRIS
• 2003-07-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-07-18 Listed $184,950 MRIS
• 1999-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-16 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MRIS
• 1999-09-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-09-07 Listed $129,900 MRIS
• 1991-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $132,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,279 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.