403 Union Mill Rd

Heathsville, VA 22460

$93,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$488
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $440/mo
• Annual: $5,274/yr
• Cap rate: 11.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.25%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $26,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $93k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($643 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#510 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Richmond County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #98 of 131 in VA (top 75%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Richmond County Elementary (math 38% / reading 58%, grade D, #787 of 1,108 statewide, top 72%, 821 students, 75% FRL); Rappahannock High (math 41% / reading 73%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 525 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 49% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 1.5% in Heathsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.