403 Union Mill Rd · Heathsville, VA 22460

$93,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2002 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet country road in Farnham, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 1 Acre lot with a wooded backdrop and open yard. Inside you'll find wood-look flooring, a cozy living room with fireplace, kitchen with island and glass-front cabinets, a dedicated laundry room, and two full baths. The property is surrounded by nature with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Sold as-is — bring your vision and make it your own. Great value for the price in Farnham, Virginia. Make sure to ask about the 3D True Immersive Virtual Tour. This technology allows you to literally experience the home on any mobile device, laptop or desktop. You can measure rooms, view 3D dollhouse

Key facts

• Wooded backdrop
• Cozy living room
• Open yard

Tags

• WOODED BACKDROP
• OPEN YARD
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees (NA / $0 reported)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway spaces for 3 vehicles
• Utilities: Septic sewer; Well water; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached manufactured ranch; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Well water; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; One bedroom has an ensuite; Bedroom and full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Electric fireplace; Ceiling fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $93k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 1.5% in Heathsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#510 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Richmond County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #98 of 131 in VA (top 75%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Richmond County Elementary (math 38% / reading 58%, grade D, #787 of 1,108 statewide, top 72%, 821 students, 75% FRL); Rappahannock High (math 41% / reading 73%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 525 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 49% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($643 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,605 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.25%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Cedar Grove Rd	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,471 (+1%)	2mo	$280,000	$190	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $35,238
• Equity at exit: $37,622

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $91,276
• Equity at exit: $54,909

Cash invested: $26,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22460

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$488
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $741

Max offer price $93,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $466	+0% $440	+5% $413	+10% $387
Rent	-10% $337	-5% $388	+0% $440	+5% $491	+10% $542
Rate	-1.0pp $486	-0.5pp $463	base $440	+0.5pp $415	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,250
• Closing costs: $2,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $93,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $93,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $93,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $93,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $93,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $93,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $93,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$58/yr (+$5/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,209
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$2,705
• Taxable income: $3,990
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$958
• After-tax cash flow: $4,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103270
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,774
• Composite: 43.11/100
• National rank: #3084
• State rank: #98 of 131 in VA

Livability — Heathsville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #22811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,797

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,076 people
• By 2030: 7,852 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 7,633 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 7,373 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 6,934 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 6,172 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.6% · R 64.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 197.8469
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+24.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $93,000 REINMLS
• 2025-09-17 Relisted — NNAR
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $125,000 NNAR
• 2025-07-14 Contingent — NNAR
• 2025-07-09 Relisted — NNAR
• 2025-05-23 Contingent — NNAR
• 2025-05-06 Listed $95,000 NNAR
• 2019-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.