9435 Bella Mar Trl

Ellenton, FL 34219

$439,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,045 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,973/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$732
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-785/mo
• Annual: $-9,418/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $122,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $439k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-785 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (32.3% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.