9435 Bella Mar Trl · Ellenton, FL 34219

$439,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,045 sqft · Land · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 6,413 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Under Construction. ALL CLOSING COSTS PAID, $5,000 towards upgrades + Special Interest Rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through 3/31. Welcome to Seaire, our newest single-family home community where luxurious living meets a vibrant coastal lifestyle. Situated in the center of Parrish, Florida, Seaire offers a blend of modern convenience, resort-style amenities, and a warm, welcoming neighborhood atmosphere. At the heart of Seaire lies a breathtaking 4.5-acre crystal-clear lagoon, the centerpiece for relaxation and recreation. Whether you’re seeking adventure or a serene escape, the lagoon offers something for everyone. Start your

Key facts

• Private bar
• Swim-up lagoon bar
• Splash pad

Tags

• CRYSTAL-CLEAR LAGOON
• PRIVATE BAR
• SWIM-UP LAGOON BAR
• SPLASH PAD
• WATER OBSTACLE COURSE
• SUPERSLIDE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-785 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $297,345 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-129,729
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-210,573
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,973 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$549 /mo · $6,585/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,967

Max offer price $325,438

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-481	-5% $-633	+0% $-785	+5% $-936	+10% $-1,088
Rent	-10% $-1,020	-5% $-902	+0% $-785	+5% $-667	+10% $-550
Rate	-1.0pp $-564	-0.5pp $-673	base $-785	+0.5pp $-899	+1.0pp $-1,014

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	17d	1	0.04mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	11d	1	0.24mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	17d	1	0.28mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	2d	32	0.46mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	24d	1	0.51mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	24d	1	0.53mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	24d	1	0.56mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	4d	1	0.76mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	15d	1	0.77mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	22d	1	0.82mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	22d	1	0.83mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	4d	1	0.85mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	24d	1	1.04mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	4d	1	1.05mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	11d	1	1.16mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	4d	1	1.18mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	3d	24	1.19mi
9104 63rd Ct E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,730	$1.16	4d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $439,000
3. 2026-03-13
   price $442,990
4. 2026-02-06
   listed $454,990 Active
5. 2025-10-22
   soldstatus $3,486,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$6,585
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,855
• − Management: −$2,855
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$17,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,169
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-87.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $439,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $442,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $454,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $3,486,000 Public Records