403 Pace Ave

Naples, TX 75568

$79,500C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $128/mo
• Annual: $1,540/yr
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $22,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($849 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($550 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#986 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pewitt CISD (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #583 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morris County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $80k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.