403 Pace Ave · Naples, TX 75568

$79,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1990 $91/sqft · 8% below area Est $86k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and full of character, this adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious 0.56-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of cozy living and outdoor space. With 870 square feet, this “dollhouse” is ideal for anyone looking for a peaceful place to call home. Inside, you’ll find a warm and functional layout, complete with a gas stove for cooking enthusiasts. Outside, the property truly shines with a covered carport, storage building, and an additional metal outbuilding—perfect for hobbies, equipment, or extra storage. Surrounded by mature trees and plenty of yard space, this property offers both privacy and room to grow. Whether you’re enjoying quiet mornings on the porch or making use of the extra outdoor space, this home delivers comfort, charm, and versatility.

Key facts

• Metal outbuilding
• Covered carport
• Storage building

Tags

• GAS STOVE
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• METAL OUTBUILDING
• MATURE TREES
• YARD SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($849 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#986 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pewitt CISD (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #583 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($550 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Morris County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $80k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,115 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,115
• List price: $79,500
• Delta: -7.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 W Main St	0.26mi	2/1.0	857 (-2%)	7mo	$90,000	$105	80
404 Pace St	0.04mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	18mo	$87,000	$107	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $20,962
• Equity at exit: $39,155

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $59,353
• Equity at exit: $63,139

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75568

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,107/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $686

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,500 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,500 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,500 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $79,500 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-04-22
   listed $79,500 Active 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   Charming and full of character, this adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious 0.56-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of cozy living and outdoor space. With 870 square feet, this “dollhouse” is ideal for anyone looking for a peaceful place to call home. Inside, you’ll find a warm and functional layout, complete with a gas stove for cooking enthusiasts. Outside, the property truly shines with a covered carport, storage building, and an additional metal outbuilding—perfect for hobbies, equipment, or extra storage. Surrounded by mature trees and plenty of yard space, this property offers both privacy and room to grow. Whether you’re enjoying quiet mornings on the porch or making use of the extra outdoor space, this home delivers comfort, charm, and versatility.

6. 2007-05-25
   soldstatus $31,000
7. 1988-12-08
   soldstatus
8. 1987-03-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,455 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$348/yr (+$29/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,107
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$815
• − Management: −$815
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$69
• After-tax cash flow: $1,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pewitt CISD
• NCES district ID: 4834800
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $35,909
• Composite: 27.29/100
• National rank: #7005
• State rank: #583 of 826 in TX

Livability — Naples

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #986
• US rank: #17571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Naples, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,271

Population outlook (Morris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,628 people
• By 2030: 11,126 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 10,181 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 9,408 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 8,268 · -28.9%
• By 2100: 7,463 · -35.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morris

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.2) · D 24.1% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -51.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.2 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Current HPI: 151.7508
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+156.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $79,500 GTAR
• 2007-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,107 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.