657 Lebec Rd #20

Lebec, CA 93243

$70,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,504/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $683/mo
• Annual: $8,195/yr
• Cap rate: 19.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.88%
• DSCR: 3.04
• 1% rule: 2.15%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $688 of equity ($484 loan paydown + $204 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,210 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+; Watch: cost of living C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Frazier Park Elementary (244 students, 76% FRL); El Tejon Elementary (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #242 of 498 statewide, top 50%, 189 students, 87% FRL); Frazier Mountain High (math 15% / reading 64%, grade F, #520 of 1,170 statewide, top 45%, 253 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.