657 Lebec Rd #20 · Lebec, CA 93243

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $53k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious single wide mobile home recently renovated. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1-bathroom, has a roomy open floor plan, central heat, and a separate laundry room. Home sits on a large, fenced lot with plenty of room for entertaining or gardening. Really nice mobile home park with lots of improvements, freeway close access and walking distance to many of the local businesses.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Tesla supercharger
• Easy freeway access

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS
• TESLA SUPERCHARGER
• LOCAL PARKS
• SCENIC SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: front yard, back yard, rocks, yard; zoned 0-1 unit/acre; Directions: From Frazier Park exit, head north on Lebec Rd approx 1/8 mile, then turn left into the mobile home park; Access via paved city streets
• HOA & community: Located in Oakridge Mobile Home Park; Park requires manager approval; Monthly land lease of $750; Community features include gutters, curbs, sidewalks, street lighting, storm drains, parks, biking and hiking access, and mountainous surroundings

Exterior

• Parking: Private driveway; Gravel driveway; Uncovered parking for 3 vehicles
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer (sewer connected); Natural gas connected; Electricity connected (standard); Cable available; Telephone in street
• Home design: Single-story manufactured/mobile home; Turnkey condition; updated/remodeled; Front entry; Has a view; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Shingle roof; Wood frame construction with stucco and concrete elements; Drywall interior walls; Glass features
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Exterior lighting; Storage building / shed (1); Wood skirting

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen; Laminate counters; Utility sink; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Instant hot water; Free-standing range / gas oven; Gas & electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main floor; All bedrooms on main floor
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; Remodeled bathroom with bathtub, shower (shower in tub), vanity area and exhaust fan
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings (9+ feet); Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Panel doors; Front entry; One-level home; Drapes/curtains; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer hookup; Gas and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,210 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+; Watch: cost of living C-, housing D+, schools F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $688 of equity ($484 loan paydown + $204 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.88%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $52,668
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
657 Lebec Rd #42	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (-3%)	18mo	$50,850	$57	72
657 Lebec Rd #8	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+14%)	16mo	$103,000	$98	59
657 Lebec Rd #20	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+13%)	20mo	$47,000	$45	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $42,446
• Equity at exit: $21,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $103,398
• Equity at exit: $26,501

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93243

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $509/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $723	-5% $703	+0% $683	+5% $663	+10% $643
Rent	-10% $564	-5% $623	+0% $683	+5% $742	+10% $802
Rate	-1.0pp $718	-0.5pp $701	base $683	+0.5pp $665	+1.0pp $646

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $70,000 Active
17. 2024-11-08
    soldstatus $47,000 Closed Sale 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Spacious single wide mobile home recently renovated. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1-bathroom, has a roomy open floor plan, central heat, and a separate laundry room. Home sits on a large, fenced lot with plenty of room for entertaining or gardening. Really nice mobile home park with lots of improvements, freeway close access and walking distance to many of the local businesses.

18. 2024-10-03
    status Pending Sale 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Spacious single wide mobile home recently renovated. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1-bathroom, has a roomy open floor plan, central heat, and a separate laundry room. Home sits on a large, fenced lot with plenty of room for entertaining or gardening. Really nice mobile home park with lots of improvements, freeway close access and walking distance to many of the local businesses.

19. 2024-09-19
    price $60,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Spacious single wide mobile home recently renovated. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1-bathroom, has a roomy open floor plan, central heat, and a separate laundry room. Home sits on a large, fenced lot with plenty of room for entertaining or gardening. Really nice mobile home park with lots of improvements, freeway close access and walking distance to many of the local businesses.

20. 2024-06-29
    listed $72,500 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Spacious single wide mobile home recently renovated. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1-bathroom, has a roomy open floor plan, central heat, and a separate laundry room. Home sits on a large, fenced lot with plenty of room for entertaining or gardening. Really nice mobile home park with lots of improvements, freeway close access and walking distance to many of the local businesses.

21. 2024-06-27
    historical
22. 2024-05-13
    price $72,500
23. 2024-03-24
    price $80,000
24. 2024-02-16
    price $69,500
25. 2024-02-08
    price $75,000
26. 2023-11-29
    listed $80,000 Active
27. 2021-06-14
    soldstatus $28,500 Closed Sale
28. 2021-05-15
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2021-05-05
    listed $27,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$509
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,444
• − Management: −$1,444
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,544
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,811
• After-tax cash flow: $6,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Tejon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600026
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,019
• Composite: 25.15/100
• National rank: #7519
• State rank: #361 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lebec

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1210
• US rank: #26134

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lebec, CA
• Population (ZIP): 900

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 11% Asian 10% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 7% German 5% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 9% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 343.2452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+154.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-08 Sold (MLS) $47,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-03 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $60,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-29 Listed $72,500 CRMLS
• 2024-06-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-05-13 Price Changed $72,500 CRMLS
• 2024-03-24 Price Changed $80,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-16 Price Changed $69,500 CRMLS
• 2024-02-08 Price Changed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2023-11-29 Listed $80,000 CRMLS
• 2021-06-14 Sold (MLS) $28,500 CRMLS
• 2021-05-15 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-05-05 Listed $27,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+26.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $509 · +59.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.