3814 Timber Lake Dr

Ocean Springs, MS 39564

$283,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,263 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-84/mo
• Annual: $-1,008/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $79,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MS, #420 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Park Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #27 of 375 statewide, top 8%, 530 students, 99% FRL); Ocean Springs Middle School (math 66% / reading 61%, grade B+, #3 of 179 statewide, top 2%, 967 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #1 of 197 statewide, top 0%, 1,899 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.