3814 Timber Lake Dr · Ocean Springs, MS 39564

$283,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2007 6,098 sqft lot Est $310k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3814 Timber Lake Dr. in the heart of beautiful Ocean Springs! This spacious 3BR/2.5BA home offers 2,263 sqft in an unbeatable location — just minutes from the hospital, I-10, shopping, dining, and all of the exciting new East Ocean Springs developments. This home is fully fortified, helping keep insurance costs low, and includes a brand new fortified roof, hurricane struts on the garage door, hurricane-rated back door, and it's located in a non-flood zone for even more peace of mind. One of the standout features of this property is the beautiful pond view, creating a peaceful setting to enjoy mornings, evenings, and everything in between. Inside, you'll find brand new carpe

Key facts

• Pond view
• Hurricane struts
• Non flood zone

Tags

• POND VIEW
• FORTIFIED ROOF
• HURRICANE STRUTS
• HURRICANE RATED BACK DOOR
• NON FLOOD ZONE
• UPSTAIRS BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community includes a lake

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Total parking for 4 vehicles; Driveway with concrete surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Two stories; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick and HardiPlank exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in public records (year built available from public records)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard fenced with wood fencing; Pond on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Bar fridge; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric range; Ice maker; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MS, #420 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Park Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #27 of 375 statewide, top 8%, 530 students, 99% FRL); Ocean Springs Middle School (math 66% / reading 61%, grade B+, #3 of 179 statewide, top 2%, 967 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #1 of 197 statewide, top 0%, 1,899 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,882 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,031
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6507 Shoshonee Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,200 (-3%)	6mo	$282,000	$128	73
6751 Biddix Evans Central Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,192 (-3%)	4mo	$296,500	$135	70
5914 Chicopee Trce	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,165 (-4%)	2mo	$279,000	$129	66
6888 Biddix Evans Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,312 (+2%)	8mo	$379,900	$164	64
9355 Taylor Pl	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,314 (+2%)	10mo	$399,000	$172	60
139 Booth Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,336 (+3%)	7mo	$320,000	$137	59
1228 Monticello Blvd	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,103 (-7%)	6mo	$275,000	$131	57
3506 Farrington Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,065 (-9%)	10mo	$274,900	$133	56
9371 Taylor Pl	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,120 (-6%)	3mo	$399,500	$188	56
141 Clear Springs Cir	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (-12%)	11mo	$329,999	$165	56
6832 Biddix-evans Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,508 (+11%)	9mo	$299,900	$120	49
1226 King Henry Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,033 (-10%)	11mo	$299,900	$148	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-55,074
• Equity at exit: $42,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-69,603
• Equity at exit: $24,546

Cash invested: $79,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,473/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,295

Max offer price $269,059

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,975
• Closing costs: $8,517
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3825 Timberlake Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,200	$1.34	21d	1	0.07mi
7003 Ute Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,195	$1.10	21d	1	0.31mi
132 Gettysburg Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	3.0	1689	$2,195	$1.30	21d	1	0.50mi
1221 King Henry Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1599	$1,800	$1.13	43d	1	0.62mi
106 Booth Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	13d	1	0.87mi
1000 Pelican Cv Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	2275	$2,350	$1.03	13d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $283,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,473 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,473 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,903
• − Property taxes: −$2,473
• − Insurance: −$1,420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$8,259
• Taxable loss: −$5,991
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,438
• After-tax cash flow: $430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ocean Springs

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #420

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Springs, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 43,240
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $285,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,473 · +32.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.