3958 Aura Way

Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$612,086D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,206 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 240 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,210
• Tax + insurance: −$532
• HOA: −$91
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $-1,251/mo
• Annual: $-15,013/yr
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.76%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $171,384

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $612k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (46.6% below list).
• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($539k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $327k (46.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $61k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$105k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.