3958 Aura Way · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$612,086

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,206 sqft · Land · 240 Days on market

Built 2025 4,066 sqft lot $277/sqft · 8% below area Est $664k · 8% under $91/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Residence Four: A spacious two-story home offering flexible living with an optional fourth bedroom or den. . Highlights include a large great room, dedicated laundry room, and a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-inspired bath. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Spacious great room
• Thoughtful upgrades

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• DOWNSTAIRS POWDER BATH
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• MODERN KITCHEN
• THOUGHTFUL UPGRADES
• SMART HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $612k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (46.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (46.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $61k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$105k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($539k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $326,794 (46.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.76%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $664,336
• List price: $612,086
• Delta: -7.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $250,486
• Equity at exit: $551,416

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $794,055
• Equity at exit: $1,189,148

Cash invested: $171,384 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,268 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,210
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,322/yr
• Insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$91
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $-1,251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,852

Max offer price $391,084

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,022
• Closing costs: $18,363
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12153 Coal Creek Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	15d	1	0.51mi
4013 Trento Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,225	$1.36	16d	1	0.55mi
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	44d	1	0.67mi
11925 Cobblebrook Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2786	$3,595	$1.29	44d	1	0.72mi
11965 Pericles Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	44d	1	1.07mi
4221 Anatolia Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2763	$3,195	$1.16	8d	1	1.13mi
4223 Anatolia Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	24d	1	1.13mi
3686 Rockdale Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1880	$2,795	$1.49	8d	1	1.17mi
12579 Bellmead Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,650	$1.65	3d	1	1.21mi
11688 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,499	$1.98	12d	1	1.25mi
11664 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,199	$2.09	2d	1	1.26mi
4071 Quorra Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,279	$2.05	2d	1	1.27mi
11832 Stoney Ridge Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2019	$2,695	$1.33	11d	1	1.28mi
11684 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,529	$2.00	22d	1	1.28mi
11643 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,169	$2.07	24d	1	1.29mi
11641 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,189	$1.99	44d	1	1.30mi
11617 Venitia Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,249	$2.03	8d	1	1.35mi
3669 Vestland Ct Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.0	2261	$3,200	$1.42	3d	1	1.38mi
3628 Vestland Way Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.0	2179	$3,000	$1.38	11d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $91 · $1,092/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $612,086 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $612,086 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $612,086 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $612,086 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $612,086 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $612,086 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $612,086 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $612,086 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $612,086 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $612,086 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $612,086 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $612,086 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $612,086 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $612,086 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $612,086 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Residence Four: A spacious two-story home offering flexible living with an optional fourth bedroom or den. . Highlights include a large great room, dedicated laundry room, and a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-inspired bath. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

16. 2026-04-08
    price $617,086 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Residence Four: A spacious two-story home offering flexible living with an optional fourth bedroom or den. . Highlights include a large great room, dedicated laundry room, and a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-inspired bath. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

17. 2026-03-12
    price $628,071 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Residence Four: A spacious two-story home offering flexible living with an optional fourth bedroom or den. . Highlights include a large great room, dedicated laundry room, and a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-inspired bath. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

18. 2025-12-10
    price $612,086 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Residence Four: A spacious two-story home offering flexible living with an optional fourth bedroom or den. . Highlights include a large great room, dedicated laundry room, and a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-inspired bath. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

19. 2025-12-04
    listed $612,611 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Residence Four: A spacious two-story home offering flexible living with an optional fourth bedroom or den. . Highlights include a large great room, dedicated laundry room, and a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-inspired bath. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,322 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,652 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,330/yr (+$111/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,286
• − Property taxes: −$3,322
• − Insurance: −$3,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,137
• − Management: −$3,137
• − HOA: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$17,806
• Taxable loss: −$26,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,390
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $612,086 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $617,086 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $628,071 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $612,086 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Listed $612,611 Zillow