5816 Nys Route 86

Wilmington, NY 12997

$385,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 364 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$384
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-507/mo
• Annual: $-6,084/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.64%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (37.7% below list).
• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#935 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Placid Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #344 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Placid Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 244 students, 33% FRL); Lake Placid Junior-Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 294 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.1% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.