5816 Nys Route 86 · Wilmington, NY 12997

$385,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1995 0.50 ac lot $361/sqft · at area comps Est $403k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Currently operating as a successful Airbnb, this inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Lake Placid School District offers a rare opportunity to own a fully furnished, income-producing property in the heart of the High Peaks region. Tucked into a quiet neighborhood, the home features an open floor plan with a spacious living area, modern kitchen, and comfortable furnishings. The full basement offers an excellent opportunity to be finished and nearly double the living space—ideal for a second living area, game room, or home office. A large two-car garage provides ample storage, while the spacious deck and private yard are perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or sunbathing. Located just five minutes from Whiteface Mountain and close to the Ausable River, Wilmington Beach, and the local bike park, this home is well-positioned for year-round enjoyment and consistent rental demand.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Full basement
• Spacious deck

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• LARGE TWO-CAR GARAGE
• SPACIOUS DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.1% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#935 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Placid Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #344 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Placid Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 244 students, 33% FRL); Lake Placid Junior-Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 294 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,000 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.64%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,705
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: -4.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $70,214
• Equity at exit: $232,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $234,019
• Equity at exit: $414,823

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12997

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,683/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,042

Max offer price $295,438

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-289	-5% $-398	+0% $-507	+5% $-616	+10% $-725
Rent	-10% $-697	-5% $-602	+0% $-507	+5% $-412	+10% $-317
Rate	-1.0pp $-313	-0.5pp $-409	base $-507	+0.5pp $-607	+1.0pp $-708

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Everest Ln Wilmington, NY	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,400	$1.65	23d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 362 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $385,000 Active 361 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 358 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 357 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,000 Active 356 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,000 Active 355 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $385,000 Active 352 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $385,000 Active 351 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 350 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 349 DOM
12. 2025-06-16
    listed $385,000 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Currently operating as a successful Airbnb, this inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Lake Placid School District offers a rare opportunity to own a fully furnished, income-producing property in the heart of the High Peaks region. Tucked into a quiet neighborhood, the home features an open floor plan with a spacious living area, modern kitchen, and comfortable furnishings. The full basement offers an excellent opportunity to be finished and nearly double the living space—ideal for a second living area, game room, or home office. A large two-car garage provides ample storage, while the spacious deck and private yard are perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or sunbathing. Located just five minutes from Whiteface Mountain and close to the Ausable River, Wilmington Beach, and the local bike park, this home is well-positioned for year-round enjoyment and consistent rental demand.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,683 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,595 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,912/yr (+$159/mo · 71.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$2,683
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$13,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,164
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Placid Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $52,508
• Composite: 44.64/100
• National rank: #2770
• State rank: #344 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #935
• US rank: #18181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Portuguese 7% Slovak 7%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.62%
• Current HPI: 489.2206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-16 Listed $385,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,683 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.