720 Bluebonnet Ln

Palmer, TX 75152

$250,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,557/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-333/mo
• Annual: $-3,994/yr
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (37.7% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#431 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Palmer ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #181 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmer El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 501 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palmer ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Palmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.