720 Bluebonnet Ln · Palmer, TX 75152

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2019 1.41 ac lot $194/sqft · 27% above area Est $244k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

two lots on this land with a cedar mobile home on it in the city of Palmer

Key facts

• Two lots
• Cedar mobile home
• 1.41 acre lot

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• CEDAR MOBILE HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel numbers: 168522, 168520; Lot size about 1.41 acres; Directions: GPS
• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, FHA-203K, VA Loan; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Multi-parcel property
• Construction: Cedar construction; Built in 2019; Preowned
• Exterior features: Acreage lot; Easement: Access; Lot in Green Acs South-Rev subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on level 1 (approx. 11 x 11); Bedroom on level 1 (approx. 11 x 11)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One-level layout; Five total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Palmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#431 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Palmer ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #181 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmer El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 501 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palmer ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,651 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,464
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 2.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,690
• Equity at exit: $57,591

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-47,066
• Equity at exit: $58,157

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75152

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,557 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $191,205

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 W Lamar St Unit 212 Palmer, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	7d	1	0.94mi
221 E Paris St Palmer, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,825	$1.37	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $250,000 Active 74-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,808/yr (+$234/mo · 158.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,065
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,268
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3135
• State rank: #181 of 826 in TX

Livability — Palmer

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #8904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmer, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,563

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hungarian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.23%
• Current HPI: 360.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $250,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.