2408 Dixie Ln

Bel Air North, MD 21050

$300,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $456/mo
• Annual: $5,470/yr
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.51%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (1.2% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#35 in MD, #1,269 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.