2408 Dixie Ln · Bel Air North, MD 21050

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1976 0.57 ac lot Est $485k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

$300,000.00 LIST PRICE SUGGESTED OPENING BID AT AUCTION. * * * * NO PRE BID * * * * AUCTION Friday June 12th, 2026 @ 11:00 AM ON PREMISES. Broker/agent registration form is available upon request and must be in the hands of Jay Edwards Auctioneers 48 hours prior to the auction. Enter from front entrance to entry foyer. Walk into formal living room w/ hardwood flooring. Dining room w/ hardwood flooring. Chair molding throughout. Country kitchen w/ ceramic tile flooring, electric stove, refrigerator, & dishwasher. Powder room. Recently upgraded ADT home controls security system. Family room w/ brick fireplace & French door exit to deck. Utility room w/ washer, dryer, utilit

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• French door exit
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• FRENCH DOOR EXIT
• PRIVATELY FENCED REAR YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Total of 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Private water source; On-site septic; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Other foundation; Finished above-grade area and unfinished below-grade area
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 140.00 x; No tidal water; Other above- and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; Room list includes: Living Room, Dining Room, Master Bedroom, Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3, Family Room
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the first upper level); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Electric cooling (other type)
• Interior features: Full basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#35 in MD, #1,269 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.51%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $484,968
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2412 Minnick Rd	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,075 (+4%)	17mo	$462,500	$223	62
307 Duffy Ct	0.30mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,246 (+12%)	4mo	$610,000	$272	51
2418 Johnson Mill Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,168 (+8%)	22mo	$525,000	$242	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-19,649
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $19,987
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21050

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,385

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2107 Mardic Dr Forest Hill, MD	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,800	$1.63	17d	1	0.79mi
740 Hickory Limb Cir Bel Air, MD	4.0	3.5	2958	$3,700	$1.25	4d	1	1.08mi
1302 Roman Ridge Way Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,250	$1.55	17d	1	1.09mi
2219 Jack Ln Bel Air, MD	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1304	$2,985	$2.29	2d	18	1.12mi
2320 Rock Spring Rd Forest Hill, MD	4.0	2.0	2186	$3,250	$1.49	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $300,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-05-20
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,235 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,753 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$517/yr (+$43/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,844
• − Management: −$2,844
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $595
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$143
• After-tax cash flow: $5,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air North

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #1269

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,848

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.38%
• Current HPI: 250.4308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,235 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.