76 Wynkoop Dr

Kerhonkson, NY 12446

$415,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Active · 187 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,885/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$678
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-1,366/mo
• Annual: $-16,387/yr
• Cap rate: 2.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.10%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (58.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (54.6% below list).
• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (58.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kerhonkson Elementary School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,574 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 209 students, 54% FRL); Rondout Valley Junior High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 243 students, 42% FRL); Rondout Valley High School (math 87% / reading 64%, grade A-, #623 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 569 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $415k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.