76 Wynkoop Dr · Kerhonkson, NY 12446

$415,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 186 Days on market

Built 2009 1.01 ac lot $432/sqft · 7% below area Est $622k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on just over one acre along a quiet, wooded private road, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath ranch offers peaceful living in the heart of beautiful Ulster County. A covered front porch welcomes you into a warm and thoughtfully designed home featuring knotty pine wide-plank floors, solid wood doors, and wood trim and details throughout—creating a rustic yet modern feel. Neutral, clean wall colors provide a bright and move-in-ready backdrop in every room. The spacious kitchen offers ample room for cooking and entertaining and features glass sliding doors leading to the back deck, perfect for enjoying the surrounding natural setting including native mountain laurel. An open-concept dining area flows seamlessly off the kitchen, ideal for everyday living and gatherings. The full, unfinished basement offers excellent storage with higher ceilings and dry space, providing great potential for future use. Located in Kerhonkson, sitting at the foothills between the Shawangunk Mountain Ridge and The Catskills, this property offers the best of Hudson Valley living with easy access to renowned hiking, fishing, biking, skiing, and mountain climbing. Enjoy the local lifestyle with nearby farmer’s markets, craft breweries, and farm-to-table dining options. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy privacy, nature, and comfort in one of Ulster County’s most desirable areas

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Glass sliding doors
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• KNOTTY PINE WIDE-PLANK FLOORS
• SOLID WOOD DOORS
• WOOD TRIM AND DETAILS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GLASS SLIDING DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (58.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (54.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (58.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kerhonkson Elementary School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,574 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 209 students, 54% FRL); Rondout Valley Junior High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 243 students, 42% FRL); Rondout Valley High School (math 87% / reading 64%, grade A-, #623 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 569 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $415k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $173,759 (58.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.10%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 18.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $622,264
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: -33.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $139,064
• Equity at exit: $373,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $477,958
• Equity at exit: $806,254

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12446

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$506 /mo · $6,067/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-1,366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,614

Max offer price $173,759

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,131	-5% $-1,248	+0% $-1,366	+5% $-1,483	+10% $-1,601
Rent	-10% $-1,515	-5% $-1,440	+0% $-1,366	+5% $-1,291	+10% $-1,217
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,157	-0.5pp $-1,260	base $-1,366	+0.5pp $-1,473	+1.0pp $-1,583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $415,000 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $415,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,000 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $415,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $415,000 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $415,000 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $415,000 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $415,000 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 164 DOM
17. 2025-12-17
    listed $425,000 Active 1396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1302 chars)

    Nestled on just over one acre along a quiet, wooded private road, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath ranch offers peaceful living in the heart of beautiful Ulster County. A covered front porch welcomes you into a warm and thoughtfully designed home featuring knotty pine wide-plank floors, solid wood doors, and wood trim and details throughout—creating a rustic yet modern feel. Neutral, clean wall colors provide a bright and move-in-ready backdrop in every room. The spacious kitchen offers ample room for cooking and entertaining and features glass sliding doors leading to the back deck, perfect for enjoying the surrounding natural setting including native mountain laurel. An open-concept dining area flows seamlessly off the kitchen, ideal for everyday living and gatherings. The full, unfinished basement offers excellent storage with higher ceilings and dry space, providing great potential for future use. Located in Kerhonkson, this property offers the best of Hudson Valley living with easy access to renowned hiking, fishing, biking, skiing, and mountain climbing. Enjoy the local lifestyle with nearby farmer's markets, craft breweries, and farm-to-table dining options. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy privacy, nature, and comfort in one of Ulster County's most desirable areas

18. 2025-12-17
    listed $425,000 Active 1302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1302 chars)

    Nestled on just over one acre along a quiet, wooded private road, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath ranch offers peaceful living in the heart of beautiful Ulster County. A covered front porch welcomes you into a warm and thoughtfully designed home featuring knotty pine wide-plank floors, solid wood doors, and wood trim and details throughout—creating a rustic yet modern feel. Neutral, clean wall colors provide a bright and move-in-ready backdrop in every room. The spacious kitchen offers ample room for cooking and entertaining and features glass sliding doors leading to the back deck, perfect for enjoying the surrounding natural setting including native mountain laurel. An open-concept dining area flows seamlessly off the kitchen, ideal for everyday living and gatherings. The full, unfinished basement offers excellent storage with higher ceilings and dry space, providing great potential for future use. Located in Kerhonkson, this property offers the best of Hudson Valley living with easy access to renowned hiking, fishing, biking, skiing, and mountain climbing. Enjoy the local lifestyle with nearby farmer's markets, craft breweries, and farm-to-table dining options. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy privacy, nature, and comfort in one of Ulster County's most desirable areas

19. 2009-10-08
    soldstatus $220,000
20. 2009-10-01
    soldstatus $220,000
21. 2008-05-11
    listed $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,067 · $506/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,540 · $545/mo
• Expected delta: +$473/yr (+$39/mo · 7.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$6,067
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$24,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,870
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rondout Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,408
• Composite: 39.5/100
• National rank: #3949
• State rank: #447 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kerhonkson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #552
• US rank: #9921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,232
• Population (ZIP): 5,232

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.32%
• Current HPI: 380.6732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+93.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Listed $425,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-01 Sold (MLS) $220,000 HVCRMLS
• 2008-05-11 Listed $220,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,067 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.