4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,840 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Pending
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,507/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,710
Tax + insurance
−$438
HOA
−$16
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$527
Net cashflow
$-182/mo
Annual
$-2,189/yr
Cap rate
5.62%
Cash-on-cash
-2.40%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$91,277
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $326k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (9.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (23.1% below list).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $251k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Spessard L Holland Elementary (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 766 students, 52% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At $2,507/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 681% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S7FB7J4KEEFJ2C
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29