10209 Colemans Lake Rd

Dinwiddie, VA 23850

$145,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,229/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $110/mo
• Annual: $1,323/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.0% in Dinwiddie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.